Ini Empat Tanda Prabowo Bakal Kalahkan Jokowi di Pilpres 2019
Friday, January 26, 2018
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Ini Empat Tanda Prabowo Bakal Kalahkan Jokowi di Pilpres 2019
Opini Bangsa - Ketua Umum Partai Gerindra Prabowo Subianto punya peluang besar mengalahkan Jokowi di Pilpres 2019, berdasarkan hasil survei Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI), Rabu (24/1/2018).
Director Survey & Polling Indonesia (SPIN) Igor Dirgantara mengatakan, meski saat ini Jokowi masih unggul dalam hasil survei, kemungkinan pergantian kepemimpinan nasional bukanlah hal yang mustahil.
Bahkan menurutnya, tak menutup kemungkinan duel antara Jokowi versus Prabowo akan kembali terulang, dan Prabowo yang memenangkannya. Inilah empat tanda Prabowo bakal mengalahkan Jokowi menurut Igor:
1. Elektabilitas Jokowi di Bawah 50 Persen
Igor mengungkapkan, berdasarkan hasil surveinya, elektabilitas Jokowi berada di angka 38,5 persen. Sedangkan Prabowo Subianto sebesar 27,1 persen. Hanya terpaut 11,4 persen.
"Artinya, duel El Clasico antara Jokowi dan Prabowo tetap terbuka lebar," katanya melalui rilis yang diterima wartawan di Jakarta, Kamis (25/1/2018).
Meskipun Jokowi tetap di rangking atas, elektabilitas Presiden Jokowi sebagai petahana di bawah 50 persen. Dengan kata lain, ucap Igor, elektabilitas Jokowi masih di bawah perolehan suaranya di Pilpres 2014.
"Ada tendensi swing voter, floating mass yang semakin membesar," ulas Igor.
Igor menilai, jika elektabilitas petahana di bawah 50 persen, menandakan kondisi yang berbahaya (warning). Artinya pemilih memberikan kesempatan kepada figur lain untuk memenangi Pilpres 2019.
"Ahok yang di Pilgub DKI 2017 punya elektabilitas di atas 50 persen saja bisa kalah, apalagi jika hanya di bawah 50 persen," ucap Igor.
2. Ingat Megawati
Igor juga mengingatkan PDIP punya sejarah hanya mampu memimpin satu periode saat menjadi Presiden. Fakta itu terjadi ketika periode Megawati Sukarnoputri (1999-2004).
Megawati kemudian dikalahkan figur dari militer, yakni SBY, yang saat itu adalah Menkopolkam.
"Padahal Megawati saat itu juga punya elektabilitas di atas 50 persen," ujar Igor.
Makanya, menurut dia, survei bahwa elektabilitas Jokowi di bawah 50 persen pertanda kepemimpinan bakal berganti.
3. Prabowo Punya Anies-Sandi
Hasil survei LSI, tutur Igor, juga mengindikasikan elektabilitas dan citra Ketua Umum Partai Gerindra Prabowo Subianto akan terus meningkat, jika publik melihat kinerja Anies Baswedan dan Sandiaga Uno baik dan menepati janji-janji kampanyenya di DKI Jakarta.
Sampai saat ini Anies-Sandi pun bekerja cenderung untuk menepati janji-janjinya.
4. Jokowi Dinilai Tak Selaras Antara Janji dan Realitas
Menurut Igor, saat ini masyarakat sudah bisa membandingkan, dan merasakan kinerja kepemimpinan Jokowi.
Munculnya polemik isu-isu penting yang mencuat, seperti isu kebangkitan PKI, Perppu Ormas, presidential threshold, penegakan HAM, pemberantasan korupsi, menurunnya daya beli masyarakat (ekonomi), dan impor beras, mewarnai diskursus dan embrio matra konflik horizontal.
"(Jokowi punya) problem keselarasan antara janji dan realitas ," nilai Igor. [opini-bangsa.com / tribunnews]
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