Bahaya Utang Yang Meroket
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
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Utang pemerintahan Jokowi tersebut didominasi oleh utang dalam mata uang rupiah (59%), diikuti porsi utang dalam mata uang asing, yakni dolar AS (29%), yen Jepang (6%), euro (4%), special drawing right (1%), dan beberapa valuta asing lain (1%). Menurut krediturnya, utang pemerintahan Jokowi didominasi investor SBN (81%), kemudian pinjaman dari Bank Dunia (6%), Jepang (5%), ADB (3%), dan lembaga lainnya (5%).
Pemerintahan Jokowi mengaku senantiasa melakukan pengelolaan risiko utang dengan hati-hati dan terukur. Hal itu termasuk menjaga risiko pembiayaan kembali, risiko tingkat bunga, dan risiko nilai tukar dalam posisi yang terkendali.
Meskipun begitu, pada September 2017 lalu, indikator risiko utang seperti rasio variable rate sudah berada pada level 10,8% dan refixing rate pada level 19,2%. Porsi utang dalam mata uang asing berada pada level 40,9%, sedangkan average time to maturity (ATM) berada pada level 9,0 tahun. Indikator jatuh tempo utang dengan tenor hingga lima tahun mengalami kenaikan dari 39,2% menjadi 39,7% dari total out-standing utang.
Utang pemerintahan Jokowi, baik itu pinjaman maupun SBN, rasionya terhadap PDB juga cenderung meningkat. Pada 2014, rasio utang sudah 24,7% PDB. Pada 2015, naik menjadi 27,4% PDB. Pada 2016, naik lagi menjadi 28,3% PDB. Berdasarkan proyeksi posisi akhir 2017, besaran utang sudah 28,6% PDB.
Rasio utang pemerintahan Jokowi, berdasarkan Debt Services Framework (DSF) IMF dan Bank Dunia, tidak bisa disebut baik-baik saja. Menurut IMF dan Bank Dunia, batas (threshold ) atas yang aman untuk rasio utang terhadap ekspor adalah sebesar 25%.
Perbandingan dengan negara-negara peer, sesama negara berkembang di kawasan Asia Tenggara, rasio utang terhadap ekspor Indonesia menempati yang tertinggi, yakni mencapai 39,6%. Ini jauh melampaui batas aman DSF sebagaimana ditentukan IMF dan Bank Dunia. Apabila perbandingannya Indonesia dengan sesama negara-negara berpenduduk besar di kawasan Asia, seperti China, India, Pakistan, dan Bangladesh, rasio utang terhadap ekspor Indonesia masih yang tertinggi di antara kelima negara berpopulasi terbesar di kawasan Asia. Dari indikator tersebut, utang pemerintahan Jokowi yang menggunung dalam tiga tahun terakhir sudah memasuki batas bahaya.
Penerimaan Pajak Rendah
Pengelolaan utang pemerintahan Jokowi tidak memperhitungkan kemampuan penerimaan dalam negeri sebagai penopang kewajiban utang yang jatuh tempo. Semakin tinggi utang tentu semakin besar pula beban (cicilan pokok dan bunga) yang harus dibayarkan. Semakin besar pula alokasi pendapatan negara yang harus disisihkan untuk melunasi utang.
Pendapatan negara sangat mengandalkan penerimaan pajak sebagai sumber pemasukan utama. Kinerja penerimaan pajak akan memengaruhi langsung kemampuan membayar utang pemerintahan Jokowi.
Menurut Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani, rasio pajak Indonesia hanya 11%, terendah di dunia. Di tengah utang yang terus bertambah, rasio penerimaan pajak terhadap PDB justru menurun. Pada 2015, rasio penerimaan pajak terhadap PDB hanya 10,76%. Pada 2016 menjadi 10,36% dan pada 2017 rasio penerimaan pajak terhadap PDB diperkirakan 10,82%.
Di tengah lemahnya kemampuan memacu peningkatan penerimaan negara, melalui pajak, pemerintahan Jokowi berencana akan kembali menarik utang tahun ini. Utang tersebut untuk menambal defisit anggaran yang ditargetkan Rp325,93 triliun atau 2,19% dari PDB. Pemerintahan Jokowi merencanakan penarikan utang baru sebesar Rp399,34 triliun.
Sikap Pemerintahan Jokowi yang bersikeras dengan kebijakan menambah utang, tentu akan semakin membebani keuangan negara. Akibatnya akan membatasi kemampuan keuangan negara membiayai program dari kebijakan pembangunan untuk menyejahterakan rakyat, termasuk membatasi keuangan negara dalam memperkuat perekonomian nasional.
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