Pilgub Jawa Tengah, Tolak Ukur Kekuatan Ril Jokowi di Pilpres 2019?
Saturday, February 17, 2018
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Dari Pilkada-Pilkada yang saat ini sedang berlangsung, Pilkada Jawa Tengah menjadi satu-satunya Pilkada yang bisa mempresentasikan pertarungan Pilpres 2019 secara utuh mendekati sempurna. Mengapa bisa demikian?
Coba perhatikan fakta fakta berikut ini:
1. Pilkada Jateng diikuti oleh Petahana (Ganjar Pranowo) yang ditantang oleh Sudirman Said. Ganjar Pranowo diusung oleh partai-partai pendukung Pemerintahan Jokowi kecuali PKB dan PAN yang mendukung Sudirman Said. Sementara Demokrat yang dalam konstelasi nasional memposisikan diri netral, di Jateng saat ini ikut mendukung petahana.
2. Hingga saat ini Jateng terkenal sebagai ‘kandang banteng’ karena sejak ada Pilkada pemilihan langsung sudah 2 periode dipimpin Gubernur yang diusung dari PDIP. Sebelum Ganjar, Jateng dipimpin oleh Bibit Waluyo yang juga diusung oleh PDIP. Pada periode kedua Bibit Waluyo maju Pilkada tetapi tidak didukung oleh PDIP dan akhirnya dikalahkan oleh Ganjar Pranowo yang diusung PDIP.
3. Berdasarkan hasil Pileg tahun 2014, di Jateng PDIP mendapatkan suara 4.295.598 dengan 18 kursi DPR RI, dari total kursi 77 yang diperebutkan. Berarti PDIP menguasai 23% kursi, lebih besar dari prosentase perolehan PDIP secara nasional.
4. Dalam Pilpres 2014 di Jawa Tengah, Jokowi-JK memperoleh 12.959.540 suara. Sedangkan kompetitornya, pasangan Prabowo-Hatta hanya mendapatkan 6.485.720 suara, separoh dari suara Jokowi-JK. Jokowi-JK menang di 35 kabupaten kota se Jawa Tengah. Jokowi adalah mantan Walikota Surakarta yang berada di Provinsi Jawa Tengah.
Dari fakta-fakta di atas sangat jelas bagaimana kekuatan PDIP dan Jokowi di Jawa Tengah. Dengan demikian hasil Pilkada 2018 kali ini menjadi potret sejauh mana kekuatan Jokowi diukur dalam Pilpres 2019 nanti. Selain karena faktor yang dikemukakan di atas, Pilkada Jateng yang jaraknya cukup pendek dengan Pilpres bisa menjadi ukuran seberapa besar Jokowi masih didukung oleh masyarakat.
Tentu kita tidak hanya akan melihat sekedar soal siapa yang bakal kalah atau menang di Jawa Tengah, tapi kita juga bisa melihat sejauh mana gerak suara rakyat dalam Pilkada Jawa Tengah nanti:
1. Jika Ganjar Pranowo sampai kalah dari Sudirman Said, maka ini jelas "lampu merah" bagi Jokowi untuk Pilpres nanti.
2. Jika Ganjar Pranowo hanya menang tipis atas Sudirman Said, maka ini adalah "lampu kuning" buat Jokowi karena meskipun menang ada kecenderungan mulai tidak nyamannya rakyat dalam kepemimpinan PDIP yang identik dengan Ganjar maupun Jokowi.
3. Jika Ganjar menang besar di Jateng maka ini adalah "lampu hijau" bagi Jokowi. Berarti rakyat cenderung lebih senang dalam kepemimpinan PDIP yang identik juga dengan Jokowi. Namun lampu hijau ini tidak bisa serta merta membuat Jokowi harus lega karena tetap akan terkait juga dengan hasil Pilkada di provinsi-provinsi lain seperti Jabar, Jatim, Sumut, Sumsel, Lampung, dan Sulsel yang juga menjadi lumbung suara untuk Pilpres 2019 nanti.
(Sumber: Kanigoro)
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