Ini 3 Faktor Penyebab Pertumbuhan Ekonomi tak Capai Target
Thursday, December 28, 2017
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Ini 3 Faktor Penyebab Pertumbuhan Ekonomi tak Capai Target
Berita Islam 24H - Wakil Presiden Jusuf Kalla menyatakan, target pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada tahun ini sebesar 5,2 persen tidak akan tercapai. Pernyataan itu disampaikan Wapres selepas menggelar breakfast meeting di kediaman dinasnya, Menteng, Jakarta, Rabu (27/12).
Menurut JK, sapaan akrab Wapres, ada sejumlah faktor yang menyebabkan ekonomi gagal tumbuh sebagaimana proyeksi pemerintah. Faktor pertama berkaitan erat dengan pembangunan infrastruktur yang gencar dilakukan.
"Nah, infrastruktur ini jangka panjang efeknya. Diharapkan ada //multiplier effect// setelah pembangunan, tapi tidak besar," kata JK.
Faktor berikut adalah pertumbuhan kredit perbankan masih single digit. Menurut data Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK), sampai dengan November 2017, pertumbuhan kredit perbankan tercatat 7,47 persen year on year (yoy).
Padahal, pemerintah mengharapkan investasi swasta bisa tumbuh lebih besar, salah satunya didukung kredit perbankan. Oleh karena itu, pertumbuhan komponen ini diharapkan bisa mencapai 10 persen atau lebih pada tahun depan.
Faktor lainnya adalah perubahan kebiasaan di masyarakat dari konsumsi ke leisure activity, seperti wisata dan kuliner. Hal itu tecermin dari keramaian selepas Lebaran dan Natal di berbagai tempat. "Tapi tingkat konsumsinya tidak meningkat seperti biasa," ujar JK.
Berdasarkan data Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), pertumbuhan ekonomi sampai dengan kuartal III 2017 sebesar 5,03 persen. Terbaru, BPS mengumumkan, ekonomi kuartal III 2017 tumbuh 5,06 persen atau lebih tinggi dari kuartal I dan kuartal II yang masing-masing tercatat 5,01 persen. Pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal IV sekaligus kumulatif 2017 baru akan diumumkan pada Februari mendatang.
Pengamat ekonomi dari Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Indonesia Fithra Faisal menjelaskan, pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini paling tinggi 5,05 persen. "Tapi ini relatif bagus dibandingkan proyeksi yang kami buat November tahun lalu untuk pertumbuhan tahun ini, yaitu 4,97 persen," katanya, Rabu (27/12).
Fithra membagi analisis terkait pertumbuhan ekonomi dari sisi eksternal dan internal. Dari eksternal, beberapa kebijakan Presiden Amerika Serikat Donald Trump secara tidak langsung membawa sentimen negatif, terutama ke jalur perdagangan internasional dan juga tekanan pada suku bunga.
Setelah sempat terganggu pada semester pertama, ekonomi global mulai membaik pada semester ini. Hal itu juga berimplikasi pada kenaikan harga komoditas dunia.
"Ini turut membantu ekspor kita mulai kuartal III. Dengan membaiknya perdagangan, efeknya terhadap permintaan domestik positif. Ini juga yang pada gilirannya memperbaiki kinerja pertumbuhan ekonomi di kuartal IV sehingga yoy bisa mencapai 5,05 persen," ujar Fithra.
Dari sisi internal, Fithra menilai ada sejumlah kendala terkait konsumsi, dari berkurangnya daya beli kelompok masyarakat 40 persen terbawah hingga sikap wait and see kelompok masyarakat 20 persen teratas.
"Tertahannya laju konsumsi domestik cukup signifikan karena proporsi konsumsi terhadap PDB (produk domestik bruto) yang di atas 50 persen," kata Fithra. Selain itu, dampak pembangunan infrastruktur belum terlihat dalam jangka pendek disertai penyerapan tenaga kerja yang terbatas. [berita-islam24h.com / rci]
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